台積電(2330)法說會1/14重磅登場,有以下幾個亮點不僅吸引到投資人的目光,更讓慶龍想要對這檔護國神山說聲對不起,因為所有的表現真得都超乎預期。
(一)上調2021年資本支出到250億美金到280億美金。
回顧1/11的日報,當時對2021年資本支出預估值為220億美金,折合台幣約6160億元,佔股本比率238%,但實際公布的數字,將達到250億美金到280億美金(編按:80%用於3、5、7奈米先進製程,10%用於先進封裝量產,10%用於特殊製程),折合台幣不僅上看到7840億台幣,佔股本的比率也上衝到302%。
一般而言,當年度的資本支出佔股本的比率超過80%,就已經算是展現CEO想要帶領公司「大成長」的企圖,台積電這幾年動輒100%以上,今年甚至上看300%的超高比率,可以說是「使盡吃奶的力氣」,來追求高速的成長。
此外,台積電之所以選擇現階段大幅擴大資本支出,根據法人的表示,應該是與2022年3奈米可望獲得競爭對手Inetel轉單所致。
市場原本預估2020年才開始量產的5奈米,2021年貢獻營收比重才能到20%,但沒想到2020年Q4就提前達陣,一方面顯示現階段的台積電有多少5奈米產能,客戶都願意買單的能耐,另一方面也持續推升16奈米以上的的先進製程,佔營收的比重來到62%,包括16奈米的13%、7奈米的29%與5奈米的20%。
(三)2021年營收成長可達16%。
由於台積電明確表示今年的營收成長目標為16%,因此在2020年營收已達1.34兆元的基礎下,可推算2021年營收可來到1.55兆元,若以39%的稅後淨利率計算,稅後淨利為6062億元,並得出EPS為23.37元=6062億元/259.3億股。
此外,根據法人預估,2022年與2023年的EPS,還可分別再成長到26元與29元的水準。
相較於1/11日報所揭示的法人獲利預估,不僅EPS都出現了提升的趨勢,乘上27倍本益比所推算的合理股價,也都進一步走揚。
以2021年EPS獲利預估為23.3元,乘上27倍本益比後得出629元,較於本的預估594元,再提高35元,2022年EPS獲利預估為26元,乘上27倍本益比後得出702元,較原本的預估675元,再提高27元,2023年EPS獲利預估為29元,,也提前達陣原本預估要到2025年才能達到的獲利目標,因此乘上27倍本益比後可得出783元。
本文From每份只要35元的《投資家日報》2021年1/15
【日報預覽圖】:

加油,別放棄,我們的星球,是變動的,生老病死,喜怒哀樂,生命 生生不息。 知足常樂。 很多國家,現在溫度,正+40度 或 負-40度, 生 活 和 生存,非常艱辛。 --- 蘇+澳+後勤+某某部,也曾 酒後駕車,BMW,車頭全毀,引擎噴飛,人沒事,上過頭條新聞,網路可以查尋到。(上新聞) 該某某部,還發生過,特別案件,因老婆,無照駕駛,老公軍人,跑去夥同鄰居,製造假車禍,真詐保險公司,雖然後來,心裡不安,主動告知,保險公司,還是被,警方發現,移送地檢署偵辦。(沒上新聞) 不知道,今年 還是去年,某艦9+3+7,有士兵,去淡水遊玩,因薪俸較低,且薪俸運用和理財不佳,到賣場超市,偷竊一盒保險套。(就算船號記錯,內容不會錯,因為是,公開場合,全體宣導,注意事項)(沒上新聞) --- 蘇+澳,南+方+澳。 社區、營區,真糟糕。 普悠瑪出軌事件、大橋斷裂事件、海軍伊清楓事件。 --- 請強化,資訊安全,駭客已經厲害到,可以入侵手機,啟動與關閉軟件,並監視手機與盜取圖片和資料,造成用戶的錯覺,刻意制造出,手機用戶,幻想 或 精神病。 利益與衝突,攏斷與掌控。 --- 刮刮樂,上面號碼,應該以, 發型款版本,進行編碼, 後面則以,發行張數量,進行編碼。 ABC-1234567(款式-張數) 不然誰知道,到底有沒有,少印 或 多印。 --- 支持公益彩卷。有錢的話,當然會幫助需要的人。 請上架,因賠錢,而下架的,樂線九宮格,謝謝。 請20:00封盤,20:05開獎。(20:30開獎,理由是,需要計算,消售金額,騙三歲小孩喔) --- 一個、謊言、炒作、洗腦...的世界。 早就已經,沒有什麼,商品供需了,所以才會造成,大家沒什麼收入。(大家在比氣長,看誰食物多) 全世界都相同問題,所以才會打,貿易戰。(太平洋 魚獲 和 工作機會) 食物,才是真的(王道),其它都是假的! --- 經濟好壞? 大家,房貸額度用光、信貸額度用光、信用卡額度用光、商品沒供需 股票炒不起來、虛擬貨幣 假的上上下下。(負債累累) 只能說,以前買到房屋 或 擁房者,已經 還清債務的人,才是幸福的。(低房價) 以前是,(慢調生活),(農業時代),(相互競爭少),(人人有田),(人人有房),現在反過來了。 --- (洗腦兼爛權 的 學長學弟制 軍隊)槽糕到不行。 --- (玩弄人、貪汙,事件永無止息),(滅證洩責,第一名),(商業值供獻零),(只會從國庫,透過預算,拿老百姓,繳的稅收,進行揮霍) [基層工人,跟老百性相同,還比較有,供獻價值] --- Come on, don't give up, our planet is changing, with birth, old age, sickness and death, joy, anger, sorrow and joy, and life is endless. Contentment is always happy. In many countries, the current temperature is positive +40 degrees or negative -40 degrees. It is very difficult to live and survive. --- Su + Australia + logistics + XX department, also once drunk driving, BMW, the front of the car was completely destroyed, the engine was flying, people were okay, the headlines can be found on the Internet. (On the news) There have also been special cases involving his wife, unlicensed driving, husband and soldier. They went to work with neighbors, made fake car accidents, and scam the insurance company. Although later, he was uneasy, he voluntarily informed the insurance company. , The police found it and transferred it to the Prefectural Procuratorate for investigation. (Not in the news) I don't know, this year or last year, a certain ship 9+3+7, there are soldiers, go to Danshui to play, because the salary is low, and the use of salary and financial management are not good, go to the supermarket and steal a box of condoms. (Even if the ship number is wrong, the content will not be wrong, because it is, public occasions, all publicity, precautions) (not on the news) --- Su + Australia, South + Fang + Australia. The community, the camp, it's really bad. Puyuma derailment incident, bridge fracture incident, navy Yiqingfeng incident. --- Please strengthen information security. Hackers are already powerful enough to invade mobile phones, start and close software, monitor mobile phones and steal pictures and data, causing users to misunderstand, deliberately creating, mobile phone users, fantasy or mental illness. Interests and conflicts, severance and control. --- Scratch music, the number above should be, Hair style version, coded, After that, the number of issued sheets is used for coding. ABC-1234567 (style-number of sheets) Otherwise, who knows, whether there is less printing or more printing. --- Support charity rolls. If you have money, you will certainly help those in need. Please put it on the shelf, because it lost money, and it was taken off, Lexian Jiugongge, thank you. Please close the plate at 20:00 and draw at 20:05. (The lottery is drawn at 20:30, the reason is that it needs to be calculated, the amount of sales, to cheat a three-year-old child) --- A world of lies, hype, brainwashing... It has been long since, there is nothing, commodity supply and demand, that's why everyone has no income. (Everyone is getting angry, see who has more food) The world has the same problem, so it will fight a trade war. (Pacific Fish Catch and Job Opportunities) Food is real (king way), everything else is fake! --- Is the economy good or bad? Everyone, the mortgage line is used up, the credit line is used up, the credit card line is used up, there is no supply and demand for goods, stocks cannot be speculated, and virtual currencies are going up and down. (Large debts) It can only be said that those who have bought or owned a house before and who have paid off their debts are happy. (Low house price) It used to be, (slow life), (agricultural age), (less competition), (everyone has a field), (everyone has a house), but now it’s the other way around. --- (Brainwashing and ruined power of the senior schoolmate system army) Too bad. --- (Playing with people, embezzlement, the incident never ends), (Extinguish evidence and venting responsibility, the first place), (Commercial value for zero), (Only from the national treasury, through the budget, the tax paid by the people and the tax will be squandered) [Grass-roots workers are the same as Lao Bai, but they are more valuable, offering value] ---
關閉系統基哨站。 這個世界,只不過是,謊言支撐起來,當一切改變時,別期待 國家 與 政府 或 任何人的承諾,因為 生死,都隨時存在,只是人類體型放大化,且記憶裡 存在著,安全思想,比較多一些生存而已。 沒有供需,一切都是假的,只是透過 各種手段 與 職業,獲取 等值的證明,紙鈔 與 錢幣。 所以生存概論,推翻政權 或 加入集團組織。 This world is just supported by lies. When everything changes, don’t expect the promise of the state, the government or anyone, because life and death exist at any time, but the size of human beings is enlarged, and there is in memory, safety thoughts, comparisons Survive more. There is no supply and demand, everything is fake, just through various means and occupations, to obtain proof of equivalent value, banknotes and coins. So an introduction to survival, overthrow the regime or join a group organization.
(1.) 別放棄,我們的星球,是變動的,生老病死,喜怒哀樂,生命 生生不息。 知足常樂。 很多國家,現在溫度,正+40度 或 負-40度, 生 活 和 生存,非常艱辛。 --- 蘇+澳+後勤+某某部,也曾 酒後駕車,BMW,車頭全毀,引擎噴飛,人沒事,上過頭條新聞,網路可以查尋到。(上新聞) 該某某部,還發生過,特別案件,因老婆,無照駕駛,老公軍人,跑去夥同鄰居,製造假車禍,真詐保險公司,雖然後來,心裡不安,主動告知,保險公司,還是被,警方發現,移送地檢署偵辦。(沒上新聞) 不知道,今年 還是去年,某艦9+3+7,有士兵,去淡水遊玩,因薪俸較低,且薪俸運用和理財不佳,到賣場超市,偷竊一盒保險套。(就算船號記錯,內容不會錯,因為是,公開場合,全體宣導,注意事項)(沒上新聞) --- 蘇+澳,南+方+澳。 社區、營區,真糟糕。 普悠瑪出軌事件、大橋斷裂事件、海軍伊清楓事件。 --- 請強化,資訊安全,駭客已經厲害到,可以入侵手機,啟動與關閉軟件,並監視手機與盜取圖片和資料,造成用戶的錯覺,刻意制造出,手機用戶,幻想 或 精神病。 利益與衝突,攏斷與掌控。 --- 刮刮樂,上面號碼,應該以, 發型款版本,進行編碼, 後面則以,發行張數量,進行編碼。 ABC-1234567(款式-張數) 不然誰知道,到底有沒有,少印 或 多印。 --- 支持公益彩卷。有錢的話,當然會幫助需要的人。 請上架,因賠錢,而下架的,樂線九宮格,謝謝。 請20:00封盤,20:05開獎。(20:30開獎,理由是,需要計算,消售金額,騙三歲小孩喔) --- 一個、謊言、炒作、洗腦...的世界。 早就已經,沒有什麼,商品供需了,所以才會造成,大家沒什麼收入。(大家在比氣長,看誰食物多) 全世界都相同問題,所以才會打,貿易戰。(太平洋 魚獲 和 工作機會) 食物,才是真的(王道),其它都是假的! --- 經濟好壞? 大家,房貸額度用光、信貸額度用光、信用卡額度用光、商品沒供需 股票炒不起來、虛擬貨幣 假的上上下下。(負債累累) 只能說,以前買到房屋 或 擁房者,已經 還清債務的人,才是幸福的。(低房價) 以前是,(慢調生活),(農業時代),(相互競爭少),(人人有田),(人人有房),現在反過來了。 --- (洗腦兼爛權 的 學長學弟制 軍隊)槽糕到不行。 --- (玩弄人、貪汙,事件永無止息),(滅證洩責,第一名),(商業值供獻零),(只會從國庫,透過預算,拿老百姓,繳的稅收,進行揮霍) [基層工人,跟老百性相同,還比較有,供獻價值] --- Come on, don't give up, our planet is changing, with birth, old age, sickness and death, joy, anger, sorrow and joy, and life is endless. Contentment is always happy. In many countries, the current temperature is positive +40 degrees or negative -40 degrees. It is very difficult to live and survive. --- Su + Australia + logistics + XX department, also once drunk driving, BMW, the front of the car was completely destroyed, the engine was flying, people were okay, the headlines can be found on the Internet. (On the news) There have also been special cases involving his wife, unlicensed driving, husband and soldier. They went to work with neighbors, made fake car accidents, and scam the insurance company. Although later, he was uneasy, he voluntarily informed the insurance company. , The police found it and transferred it to the Prefectural Procuratorate for investigation. (Not in the news) I don't know, this year or last year, a certain ship 9+3+7, there are soldiers, go to Danshui to play, because the salary is low, and the use of salary and financial management are not good, go to the supermarket and steal a box of condoms. (Even if the ship number is wrong, the content will not be wrong, because it is, public occasions, all publicity, precautions) (not on the news) --- Su + Australia, South + Fang + Australia. The community, the camp, it's really bad. Puyuma derailment incident, bridge fracture incident, navy Yiqingfeng incident. --- Please strengthen information security. Hackers are already powerful enough to invade mobile phones, start and close software, monitor mobile phones and steal pictures and data, causing users to misunderstand, deliberately creating, mobile phone users, fantasy or mental illness. Interests and conflicts, severance and control. --- (2.) 關閉系統基哨站。 這個世界,只不過是,謊言支撐起來,當一切改變時,別期待 國家 與 政府 或 任何人的承諾,因為 生死,都隨時存在,只是人類體型放大化,且記憶裡 存在著,安全思想,比較多一些生存而已。 沒有供需,一切都是假的,只是透過 各種手段 與 職業,獲取 等值的證明,紙鈔 與 錢幣。 所以生存概論,推翻政權 或 加入集團組織。 This world is just supported by lies. When everything changes, don’t expect the promise of the state, the government or anyone, because life and death exist at any time, but the size of human beings is enlarged, and there is in memory, safety thoughts, comparisons Survive more. There is no supply and demand, everything is fake, just through various means and occupations, to obtain proof of equivalent value, banknotes and coins. So an introduction to survival, overthrow the regime or join a group organization.--- --- (3.) 一個錯誤的選擇 一個錯誤的環境 造就了 一連串 錯誤的事件 軍隊 隸屬 特殊環境 , 官員有責 解決底下問題, 否則沒資格 命令 不要只會 , 升官發財 , 滅證卸責, 受傷死亡, 都不算數, (該死的軍隊)(管理極差) [該休息 休息][該工作 工作] [很困難?] (作息時間,與外面社會,稍微不同,當然正常) (部隊管理不佳, 造成他人精神壓力問題) (部隊管理不佳 ,造成他人工作負荷過重) (部隊管理不佳,造成 軍職 約聘, 捉弄 與 陷害 他人, 永久上的紀錄遺憾) (受傷沒說,完全不算數)(內傷算自己該死) (卸責厲害的軍隊) ( 上電視、上報紙、莒光園地、女兵日記 ) (形象 洗白 第一名) A wrong choice A wrong environment Created a series of wrong events The army is in a special environment, and officials have the responsibility to solve the underlying problems, otherwise they are not qualified to order Don't just get promoted and get rich, destroy evidence and shirking responsibility, Injuries and deaths don’t count, (damn army) (very poor management) [Should take a break] [This job should work] [It’s difficult?] (The work and rest time is slightly different from the outside society, of course it is normal) (Poor management of the troops, causing mental stress to others) (Poor management of the troops, resulting in excessive workloads for others) (Poor management of the troops, resulting in military appointments, teasing and framing others, permanent record regrets) (I didn't say the injury, it doesn't count at all) (Internal injury counts as one's own damn) (Short the blame for the powerful army) (On TV, Newspaper, Juguang Garden, Female Soldier's Diary) (Image whitewashing first place) --- (4.) 妥不妥,適不適當,公道在人心。 這只會,誤導社會,上報紙、上新聞台、就能大幅增加,升官機會! 原因在於: 「金錢 若等於 食物,那就是 透過各種方式(工作 或 賭博),獲取金錢!」 「但是,在組織架構下,是由人力血汗付出,甚至受傷死亡,才換取到食物」 「怎麼會變成,因為極少數人,想要升官發財,用各種錯誤手段,用力踩著別人的身體,往上爬,而輕鬆獲得,更多的(福利與金錢)!」 [這只會,造成,整個組織架構,嚴重崩潰]